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International Journal of Comparative Sociology, Vol. 28, No. 1-2, 57-68 (1987)
DOI: 10.1177/002071528702800105
© 1987 SAGE Publications

A Note on the Easterlin Model of Fertility in Northwestern Europe and the United States: 1950-1981

Allen Jan Baird

Center for Research on the Acts of Man, Philadelphia, U.S.A.

This paper tests a multivariate time series model of West European fertility change based on Easterlin's social and economic analysis of post-1945 fertility trends in the United States. Results indicate that fertility trends in Western Europe during the years 1950-1981 are associated with relative unemployment levels, and in some countries with age specific labor force supply constraints. Ex-post forcasts of fertility are generated up to 1981 for England and Wales, France, Sweden, and the United States. The difficulties with providing ex-ante forcasts are discussed.


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