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War: Long Range Time Series by Conditioning

Program in Anthropology, Brandon University, Brandon, Manitoba, Canada R7A 6A9

Six long range time series of war are presented. The time series extend from 35,000 B.C. to 2,000 A.D. The time series consist of probabilities that a discrete random variable X=x,x=1,2,.... The method used to construct probabilities is conditioning on a discrete random variable Y, y=1,2,3 which is observable both in the archaeological record and in an ethnographic cross- cultural data base. Assumptions required by the method are clarified. An historical time series of literacy is constructed and used to support the assertion of good fit of the war time series to the empirical world.

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